By 2015: 40% of households connected to broadband

It is very easy to be sceptical about the developments of national broadband networks, the developments of e-services and the transformation of the 100 year old telecoms industry. But when BuddeComm launched their ideas about the structural separation of incumbent telcos (2002) the need for wholesale infrastructure for the development of e-services (2005), the demise of the incumbent telcos if they don’t change (1990s) and the need for mobile operators to change their mobile data/portals (1997) we received far more sceptical comments than positive comments, yet we are seeing significant changes happening. Looking back it is amazing what changes have occurred over the last 5 years. Governments are recognising the need to show leadership in the development of broadband infrastructure for the development of e-services in order to address some of their problems in the economy, environment, healthcare, education and so on, this is the opposite of the trend a decade ago where governments saw their role as a total departure of the telecoms industry, we see this happening in the USA, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, in total now more than 50 countries. The EU only two weeks ago launched its own €9 billion initiative.

Cheap devices

We have seen the enormous success of mobile comms and since recently mobile broadband, once the stranglehold of the mobile operators was broken by companies such as Apple and Google the flood gates opened, many countries are seeing smart phone penetrations reaching 50% and in developing countries around 10%.Indialaunched its $35 tablet. These developments are opening the way for new e- and m-services.

Trans-sector developments

Most countries start to understand that they will have to find ways to upscale the thousands of healthcare and education projects that have been launched over the last decade and that this requires changes in policies and government leadership. So to the naysayers why being so sceptical that this will not continue and that changes will not happen, they are happening.

At the events organised around the UN Broadband Commission, some 150 heads of state were presents (Prime Ministers, Ministers, CEOs of telcos and other ICT companies, SGs and DGs of many international organisations including the OECD, UNESCO, WHO, etc)

They were present at either the discussions where the global broadband targets were set or were invited to comment when they were presented. This gives people in all those countries an opportunity to question their governments about what they are going to do about this. We don’t think that many countries do want to be left behind, so there should be at least a positive attitude to start the discussion, if that hasn’t already happened.

Village broadband connection is an excellent way to start in the developing world, these are at the moment by far the most prominent broadband development that we are seeing around, good examples exists in amongst other countries inMexico,Chile,Azerbaijan,Nigeria,Kenya,Rwanda,India,Bangladesh(many represented at the conference).

Targets call for action

So there are examples on how this can be done and those countries not trying to find their own examples. There is no silver bullet and good government policies are far more important than subsidies. Through the Broadband Commission we bring all these governments together and put these examples right in front of them, we show them why they will have to transform their telecoms industry and that it are the governments who have to show leadership through policies that create the right environment to make this happen.

It was very encouraging to see that at the event African prime ministers and ministers of Nigeria, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Gabon, Senegal, Malawi and others all presented or discussed plans that they have initiated at a government level (as of course did those representing their countries from other parts of the world – including Australia). Also companies such Ericsson, Alcatel, Huawei, Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, are part of the targets and challenge and they are also supporting it. Carlos Slim one of the biggest telecom investors in the world publically stated at the conference that it is achievable and he has changed some of his views over the last 2 years in particular in relation to the role of governments in all of this. Also these large investors have accepted the trans-sector approach that requires all parties to work together.

Incumbents still dragging their feet

Another obstacle mentioned frequently were the incumbent telecoms operators (including the mobile companies). They try to protect their vertically integrated business models and don’t want any competition in this field. However, examples inSingapore,Malaysia,UK,AustraliaandNew Zealandcan be used to show how this could be addressed.

Conclusions

Since we started the UN Broadband Commission less than 2 years ago we have seen clear evidence that many countries and their governments ‘get it’. If we don’t put a target on the board people will say it is all blue sky and soft stuff if we put targets on the board they will be seen as either too ambitious or not ambitious enough. We are happy to start and see where this leads us.

Targets can be used to start asking questions to governments and companies and that is why the Commission decided to follow this route.

We are not saying that all of this is easy. The challenges are huge, but look at mobile comms what can be achieved. We are certainly not saying that these targets are the panacea, but it is yet another tool that can be used by grass root organisations to force through the changes in govt policies that are needed to make happen what you and others are trying to do at that ground level.