Worldwide mobile data traffic is on pace to increase 18-fold over the next five years, tripling fixed data traffic by 2016, according to a new forecast issued by networking giant Cisco Systems.
The Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast anticipates global mobile data traffic will triple fixed data traffic by 2016, with the number of mobile web-connected devices eclipsing the number of people on earth. Cisco projects an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic by 2016, a number equivalent to 33 billion DVDs, 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files or 813 quadrillion text messages. (An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to 1 quintillion bytes.)
Mobile video traffic will account for 71 percent of all mobile data by 2016, Cisco predicts. Mobile cloud traffic also will increase dramatically, expanding 28-fold between 2011 and 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 95 percent. Mobile network connection speeds will surge in conjunction with consumer demand, increasing nine-fold during the forecast period.
"By 2016, 60 percent of mobile users--3 billion people worldwide--will belong to the 'Gigabyte Club,' each generating more than one gigabyte of mobile data traffic per month," said Cisco vice president of product and solutions marketing Suraj Shetty in a statement. "By contrast, in 2011, only one-half percent of mobile users qualified. This impressive growth in mobile traffic will be driven by more powerful devices, notably smartphones and tablets, using faster networks, such as 4G and Wi-Fi, to access more applications, particularly data-intensive video."
The Middle East and Africa will experience the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate, growing 36-fold between 2011 and 2016--a CAGR of 104 percent. Asia-Pacific follows at 21-fold growth/84 percent CAGR, trailed by Central and Eastern Europe (21-fold growth/84 percent CAGR), Latin America (18-fold growth/79 percent CAGR), North America (17-fold growth/75 percent CAGR) and Western Europe (14-fold growth/68 percent CAGR).
